very far from clear indeed.
And no, noone 'freaks out' at the blurry shots, and most of them are subject to ongoing discussion and analysis. Yes, people do go "Whoaaah" when another one is posted that is clearly her and artistically relevant, like recently.
Basically, dark nail polish is all it has in common. And the questionable image was posted here after the hand-thread, not even as a serious troll, but for fun; obviously different, but the plaid skirt could fool you for a good few seconds.
The original threads might be buried in here somewhere (or maybe it was from before the great purge).
If it's her, it's her; too bad, but not that important in the grand scheme of things. But the chance it's actually her is very close to zero.