SERIOUS THREAD IS SERIOUS.
>>7 Medvedev is legitimizing himself as President. Russia has provided training and logistical support to south ossetian separatists for years, this is well documented.. Remember, the Soviets purposively split borders through troublesome ethnic groups in an aim to curb any attempt to unify against Moscow; this war is a continuation of the longstanding policy of provoking instability and undermining territorial integrity within nations of strategic importance to Russian defense. Georgia, Ukraine, Belarus, etc are all of critical importance to the old Russian concept of maintaining a territorial buffer zone against Western corridors, and through provoking continued political instability in these regions they continue to block succession to NATO or any similar Western defense bloc. Western powers can't afford a liability such as Georgia, it's just not worth WWIII.
Caspian pipelines are important, but certainly not to the point of conflict. Putin has exercised complete control over the sphere by proxy and has used it to project influence for years; this won't change anytime soon. The Bush Administration naturally answered with counterforce in the Middle East in 2003. Think of it as geopolitical chess. If Kennan were alive today, containment would still be on the tip of his tounge; and rightfully so.
The major fuckup has actually been committed by the Bush Administration. Through the mid 90's, the Clinton Administration had an assistant secretary of state shuffle back and forth between Moscow and Tbilisi. In the past week, the State Department sent a low ranking token diplomat, who hasn't yet left the embassy. Credit really must go to Sarkozy for his efforts.
>>9 NATO has always maintained an active presence in the Black Sea (beyond observer status), and a heavy deployment at this time promotes continued stability- especially if Ukraine closes her naval base in Sevastopol.
>>it seems this is merely the great Russian Bear flexing her muscles
That's about right. Everyone will make a big fuss, but in the end will do nothing.